Double-digit truckload contract rate increases could be coming again in 2027, and shippers building next year’s budgets should plan accordingly. That was the message from Covenant Logistics Group CEO David Parker on the carrier’s third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 30, where he said climbing costs for driver pay, equipment and insurance leave carriers little choice but to keep pushing rates higher.
“We’re going to continue to raise rates,” Parker said. “We have to because of the cost.” Asked whether he expects another year of double-digit contract increases in 2027, he answered: “That’s my expectations.”
Market data backs him up. Shippers resetting truckload contracts in recent months are paying roughly 12.8% more than the rates they replaced, according to SONAR’s Contract Rate Change Direction index. During the same stretch in 2025, that figure was just 4.1%. The numbers could signal a shift in pricing power back toward carriers, and the rate-cutting leverage shippers enjoyed over the past few years may be fading. Anyone heading into an RFP in the coming months could find carriers holding firm on rates and walking away from freight that does not meet their return thresholds.
Capacity is the other factor tightening the market. Parker said the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration remains committed to enforcement around driver training schools, commercial driver’s licenses and electronic logging devices, and he expects that scrutiny to pull additional trucks out of the market, particularly in team-driver operations. He also said as many as 30% of trucks using ELDs may be running with manipulated hours-of-service records, calling that “a gigantic number,” and predicted regulators will eventually require third-party certification of ELD providers. Covenant management acknowledged that recruiting team drivers for specialized, high-security freight is already slow and resource-intensive.
Covenant’s own results show how a carrier positions itself for this environment. The company is shifting its expedited fleet away from one-way runs toward multiyear committed capacity agreements. About 25% of its expedited tractors ran under dedicated arrangements at the start of 2026, a share Parker expects to reach 75% to 80% by the end of the year. Surging demand for high-security transportation, including technology shipments and data center equipment, is fueling the shift, with some customers signing two- to four-year contracts. Third-quarter numbers reflect the strategy: total revenue rose 19.2% year over year to $353.9 million, truckload revenue per total mile climbed 19.8% to $3.03, and the average tractor count dropped 8.9% to 2,186. Managed freight revenue jumped 68.4% to $121.6 million. Fewer trucks, higher rates per mile, longer commitments. President Paul Bunn summed up the approach as focusing on safety and execution and “not chasing” low-margin commoditized freight.
Shippers and brokers heading into 2027 bid season should budget for double-digit increases, secure committed capacity on critical lanes early, and expect carriers to be more selective about the freight they accept.